Closing Bell: Sensex slumps 535 pts, Nifty settles below 21,550; Bajaj Auto surges 5%, top gainer

The Nifty opened on a flat note and traded with a negative bias throughout the day. It closed in the negative down ~148 points. On the daily charts we can observe that the Nifty closed in the red for the second consecutive day. Intraday pullbacks are being sold into and the 20-hour moving average (21,642) is acting as a stiff resistance. On the way down the Nifty has now reached the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement level (21,507) which is likely to act as a make-or-break level for the Nifty. We expect Nifty to hold on to this support and prepare a base for the next leg of upmove. Overall, we believe that the fall is a retracement of the previous rise from 20,976 – 21,834 and not a trend reversal and thus this dip should be used as a buying opportunity.

Bank Nifty closed marginally in the red and has now reached the 20 day moving average (47,669) which it has respected today. Intraday it dipped below that however, it has closed above that indicating buying interest at support levels. We expect the Bank Nifty to consolidate and build a base for the next leg of upmove. On the upside immediate resistance is placed at 47,900 – 48,000.

"The lack of fresh triggers and concerns over valuation influenced investors to stay sidelined. Weak global indicators, like contraction in China & Euro zone manufacturing data, added concerns about global economic recovery in 2024. Importantly, the market was waiting for the FED minutes later today for rate insights. As a rebound in the US 10yr yield and an uptick in the dollar index indicate whether FED may not turn as dovish as expected."

“The Indian stock market ended 2023 close to its highest levels ever. As the new year begins, there's been some nervousness, with a slight correction of 1-2% from Monday's peak. This week, various macroeconomic data from both India and globally will likely keep the markets volatile. A key event to watch is the release of the Federal Reserve's minutes, which may hint at the timing of potential rate cuts.

In some areas, valuations seem stretched, as seen in the surge of micro-cap stocks and the enthusiasm for new issues, including in the SME sector. The Nifty trailing PE stands at 23.4x, indicating a balance between not being overly expensive and not particularly cheap, especially considering the forecasted 12–14% earnings CAGR over the next two years.

This week, the Energy and Metals sectors have been prominent in market news, but no specific sector has significantly outperformed the overall market. Looking ahead, increased volatility might become more common as election season nears. However, factors like stable inflation and strong credit/GDP growth are positive signs for the market's health.”

Rupee ends at 83.28/$ against Tuesday's close of 83.32/$

At close, the Sensex was down 535.88 points or 0.75 percent at 71,356.60, and the Nifty was down 139.60 points or 0.64 percent at 21,526.20. About 1,917 shares rose, 1,390 fell, and 79 remains unchanged.

The outperformance of midcaps kept market breadth in favour of gainers.Metals stocks take a hit amid a fall in global prices while IT names struggled due to a spike in US bond yields.

Adani Group stocks shone in a weak market, surge 1-10 percent after Supreme Court dismissed pleas on the Adani-Hindenberg issue.

on CNBC-TV18

-Board Will Meet On Monday To Discuss The Buyback Proposal

-2023 Has Been A Good Year For The Company

-We Have Re-engineered Our Business To Invest In New Technologies

-Q3 Was A Record Quarter For The Co

-We Will Close With `20,000 Cr Of Cash This Year

-Buyback Is An Efficient Way To Return Capital To Shareholders

-This Year Is Turning Out To Be Much Better Than What Was Expected

-Invested In A New Plant For KTM In Chakan, Pune

-Lot Of Investment In Technology And Facilities For The Chetak

-Logical To Assume The Buyback Will Be Larger, As Cash On Books Is Higher

-Whenever Cash On books Crosses `15,000 Cr, Look To Give Back Over 70% To Investors

Top midcp gainers

Non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) focusing on gold loans have maintained a reasonably resilient market share despite intense competition from banks. That, and support from strong capitalisation, sharp focus on risk management and healthy profitability has meant their credit profiles continue to be stable.

Growth in the assets under management (AUM) of gold-loan NBFCs has been driven by three factors: ability to hold on to their customers — as evinced in a steady base; focus on small and mid-size loans; and increasing reach by expanding branch networks.

The IPO pipeline remains robust in 2024, with 27 companies having received SEBI approval to raise a combined amount of Rs 28,500 crore, and another 36 companies awaiting approval to raise a total of Rs 40,500 crore. READ MORE

The Nifty and the Sensex saw selling pressure for the second straight session on January 3 as investors rushed to take some money off the table. Weak cues from global markets also weighed on the benchmarks. Investors showed some caution ahead of the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy meeting that had sparked hopes of earlier-than-expected rate cuts from the central bank.

Markets are entering 2024 with stable domestic macros, global structural tailwinds favouring India and an investment led economic growth outlook which bodes well. In addition, the perceived risks have been reducing. Markets can therefore remain constructive in 2024 although the starting point of valuations offers lower upside. At the portfolio level, combination of GARP and active weight provides opportunities to create alpha even while managing the inherent risks. Meanwhile, looking for any early warning signs of a bubble combined with focus on asset allocation will be important for investors.

Kotak Institutional Equities has downgraded Tata Steel to reduce from buy. They increased the stock target to Rs 145 from Rs 140 a share. Tata Steel's stock surged 20% in two months due to market optimism, but Kotak notes deteriorating fundamentals. Raw material outperforming steel prices hints at India's spreads facing downward pressure, with persistent strain in Europe's steel spreads and potential delays in UK's KPO-II 5 mtpa expansion resolution. Kotak considers the current price unfavorable in terms of risk-reward post the recent rally.

Market at 12.01 PM

Benchmark indices extended their opening losses and sunk further into the red with most frontline sectors struggling with losses. The Sensex was down 300 points or 0.40 percent at 71,611.30, and the Nifty was down 85.80 points or 0.40 percent at 21,580. About 2,109 shares rose, 1,561 fell, and 150 were unchanged.

Shares of National Fertilizer, Madras Fertilizers, GSFC and Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers have gained 25-40 percent in the past one month on the back of heavy volumes generated by high-frequency trading firms.

Hrti Private Limited and Graviton Research Capital have been particularly active in these stocks on January 1 and 2, and previously on December 28, 6 and 4. These trades have pushed the 20-day average volume for these stocks from a few thousands to lakhs.

The heightened activity in fertiliser stocks also comes ahead of the Union Budget 2024. This is a general trend as the buzz around fertiliser subsidy gets stronger in the run-up to the Budget.

57 Indian corporates raised ₹49,434 crore through main board IPOs in 2023, 17 per cent lower than the Rs59,302 crore mobilized by 40 IPOs in 2022, according to primedatabase.com, India’s premier database on the primary capital market. However, excluding the mega LIC IPO which came out in 2022, IPO mobilisation increased by 28 per cent from last year.

According to Pranav Haldea, Managing Director, PRIME Database Group, overall public equity fundraising increased by 59 per cent to Rs1,44,283 crore in 2023 from Rs90,886 crore in 2022.

The pipeline continues to remain strong. 27 companies proposing to raise Rs28,500 crore are presently holding SEBI approval while another 36 companies looking to raise about Rs40,500 crore are awaiting SEBI approval (Out of these 63 companies, 3 are NATCs which are looking to raise roughly Rs16,000 crore).

According to Haldea, the next couple of months should see several IPOs being launched before a pause on account of the general elections.

Market at 11 AM

Benchmark indices extended their opening losses and sunk further into the red with most frontline sectors struggling with losses. The Sensex was down 360 points or 0.50 percent at 71,531.36, and the Nifty was down 108 points or 0.50 percent at 21,557. About 1,974 shares rose, 1,605 fell, and 154 were unchanged.

State-run MOIL shares rallied 1.6 percent in trade on January 3 after the manganese ore producer recorded the highest ever monthly output in December 2023.

MOIL registered production of 1.85 lakh tonnes in December 2023, higher by 31 percent on-year. For the current financial year up to December, the total production has exceeded the previous year’s by 41 percent, with production of 12.73 lakh tonnes of manganese ore.

On the sales front too, the company clocked growth of 40 percent during the first nine months of FY24 with sales of 11.01 lakh tonnes of manganese ore.

India's manufacturing sector activity continued to expand in December, although the HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) came in at an 18-month low of 54.9, data released on January 3 showed.

At 54.9, the December manufacturing PMI is well below 56.0 posted in November. However, despite the fall, the gauge of manufacturing sector activity in December was above the key level of 50, which separates expansion in activity from contraction, for the 30th month in a row.

According to S&P Global, which compiles the index, the December PMI print was "indicative of a marked improvement in the health of the sector".

Supreme Court gives its ruling in Adani-Hindenburg case. The Apex Court says there is no valid ground raised to revoke amendment to FPI, LODR recommendations.

Adani Stocks surged. Adani Enterprises gains 8 percent, Adani Green Energy jumped 6 percent, Adani Energy Solutions Ltd advanced 12 percent, Adani Ports 3 percent, Adani Power 5 percent.

Shares of Hindustan Zinc bucked the weakness in metal stocks and rose on January 3 after it reported a 7 percent increase in mined metal production in Q3. In a regulatory filing on January 2, Hindustan Zinc said that its mined metal production jumped 7 percent over the previous year and 8 percent over last quarter to 2,71,000 tonnes. This increase was driven by a mix of improved mined metal grades and higher ore production at Rampura Agucha and Sindesar Khurd Mine.

Additionally, refined metal production grew 7 percent on-quarter to 2,59,000 tonnes based on better plant availability. It grew about 1 percent year-on-year.

Shares of Bank of Maharashtra rose 2 percent in early trade on January 3 a fter public sector bank clocking more than 20 percent growth in Q3 gross advances.

Bank of Maharashtra, a government-owned bank, has reported a strong performance for the quarter ending December FY24. The total business of the bank has shown a 18.92 percent year-on-year growth, reaching Rs 4.34 lakh crore. This growth is attributed to a 17.9 percent increase in deposits, totaling Rs 2.46 lakh crore, and a 20.3 percent rise in gross advances, reaching Rs 1.89 lakh crore.

Indian pharma major Glenmark Pharmaceuticals said it has launched a biosimilar of the popular anti‐diabetic drug, Liraglutide, for the first time in India.

The drug is being marketed under the brand name Lirafit following the approval from the Drug Controller General of India (DCGI). Priced at around Rs 100 for a standard dose of 1.2 mg (per day), this will lower the cost of therapy by approximately 70 percent,and will be available only under prescription.

According to IQVIA sales data for the 12‐month period ending August 2023 (MAT August 2023), the market for GLP‐1 RA in India is estimated to be Rs 259 crores, with an annual growth of 108 percent against the corresponding period last year (MAT August 2022).

Market at 10 AM

Benchmark indices extended their opening losses and sunk further into the red with most frontline sectors struggling with losses. The Sensex was down 305.93 points or 0.43 percent at 71,586.55, and the Nifty was down 76.60 points or 0.35 percent at 21,589.20. About 1,631 shares rose, 1,399 fell, and 111 were unchanged.

Shares of Hero MotoCorp Limited traded 3 percent lower at Rs 3,974 early on January 3 after the company announced flat sales in December.

The world's largest two-wheeler company sold 3,93,952 units as against 3,94,179 units, down a marginal 0.05 percent from the same period last year.

Motorcycle sales stood at 3,54,658 units last month as against 3,56,749 units in the corresponding period a year ago. Scooter sales in December 2023 were, however, higher at 39,294 units as against 37,430 units a year back, the company said.

"Market has turned highly volatile with profit booking triggered by high valuations. Even DIIs who have been consistent buyers are booking profits. Buying on dips also is happening simultaneously. These twin moves of profit booking and dip buying will keep the market highly volatile in the near-term. An important trend in the market is the renewed buying in pharmaceuticals. Further buying can be expected in this segment. The Supreme Court judgement on the Adani- Hindenberg issue expected this morning will have a sentimental impact on the Adani stocks in particular and the overall market in general.

Long-term investors can buy the fairly-valued largecap private banking stocks which have the potential to outperform the Nifty this year."

Adani Group stocks surged up to 9 percent on January 3 ahead of the Supreme Court's judgement on a batch of petitions seeking a court-monitored investigation into the allegations made by US-based firm Hindenburg Research against the conglomerate regarding violations of the stock market.

The top court’s verdict comes over a month after it reserved its judgment in November on a batch of petitions regarding the allegations of stock price manipulation by the Adani Group.

Shares of the group's flagship firm Adani Enterprises jumped 4.8 percent in morning deals. Adani Total Gas surged over 8 percent and Adani Energy Solutions was up 9 percent. Adani Power, Adani Green Energy, Adani Ports and Adani Wilmar rose up to 6 percent.

Other Adani Group stocks including NDTV, ACC and Ambuja Cements were also trading with gains of up to 6 percent.

Shares of M&M Financial Services rose marginally on January 3 despite its December quarter business update failing to impress analysts. The company's assets under management (AUM) grew 25 percent on-year to Rs 96,900 crore, missing Jefferies analysts' estimates. Its Q3 FY24 disbursements rose 7 percent YoY but came in below estimates at Rs 15,500 crores.

According to Morgan Stanley, if M&M Fin's disbursements do not pick up, there could be risks to its AUM forecast. The brokerage has an 'Equal-Weight' call on the stock with a target of Rs 285 per share.

Shares or Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL) jumped nearly 2 percent in early trade on January 3, post securing 49 percent stake in Rs 123.36 crore Varkala Sivagiri project. At 9:15 am the RVNL stock was trading at Rs 183.24 on NSE.

The KRDCL-RVNL joint venture has secured approval for a significant upgrade of Varkala Sivagiri railway station, with a project cost of Rs 123.36 crore. In this partnership, KRDCL takes the lead with a 51 percent share, while RVNL holds 49 percent stake. The said order will be executed in 30 months as stated in an official filing by RVNL with the exchange.

The two benchmarks opened largely flat. The Sensex was down 73.14 points or 0.10 percent at 71,819.34, and the Nifty was down 13.40 points or 0.06 percent at 21,652.40.

A series of small candle formations near the lifetime highs signifies a breather for our markets after the recent rally. Also, the market participant chose to take some money off the table, which seemed long due in our market. Technically, there are no significant alterations in the price action in the index, but brakes seem to have been applied to the recent momentum. The immediate resistance is intact near 21800-21850, and a decisive breach would only trigger the next leg of the rally to propel the index for another milestone. On the lower end, 21600-21500 withholds the cushion, and sustenance above the same is likely to augur well for the bulls in the period. A plunge below these levels could attract further correction for the 21200 zone. The upcoming FOMC meet could be seen as the next trigger for the markets to set up a near trend. Till then, some consolidation could be seen with strong support near 21500.

The upcoming FOMC meet could be seen as the next trigger for the markets to set up a near trend. Till then, some consolidation could be seen with strong support near 21,500. Meanwhile, global markets need to be watched carefully as they might dictate the near-term trend.

The two benchmark indices traded flat in the pre-opening session, tracking subdued cues from global peers. The Sensex was down 28.15 points or 0.04 percent at 71,864.33, and the Nifty was up 11.50 points or 0.05 percent at 21,677.30.

VST Industries was in full action on Tuesday as the stock was locked in a 20 percent upper circuit at Rs 4,065.3 after block deals. Ace investor Radhakishan Shivkishan Damani has bought 2,22,935 equity shares, equivalent to 1.4 percent of paid-up equity, in VST Industries at an average price of Rs 3,390 per share, valuing at Rs 75.57 crore.

SBI Mutual Fund also picked 2.25 lakh shares in the cigarette company at the same average price. However, HDFC Mutual Fund sold 2 lakh shares at an average price of Rs 3,390.13 per share, and DSP Mutual Fund offloaded 2.5 lakh shares in VST Industries at an average price of Rs 3,390 per share.

As of September 2023, SBI Small Cap Fund held 6.81 lakh shares or 4.41 percent stake in VST Industries, while HDFC Mutual Fund had 6.81 percent shareholding and DSP Small Cap Fund 2.4 percent shares in VST.

Nifty witnessed some profit booking after resisting near the 21,800 zone since the last 3 sessions and slipped down to some extent to take support near the 21,550 levels and with a pullback seen ended near the 21,650 zone. The bias can turn little bit cautious once a decisive breach below 21,400 is confirmed with the next major and crucial support zone maintained near 21,000 levels. The support for the day is seen at the 21,500 zone while the resistance is seen at the 21,800 level.

Avenue Supermart shares will remain in focus following the company's healthy business update for Q3. The company's standalone revenue from operations rose to Rs 13,247 crore in Q3 as against Rs 11,305 crore in the year-ago period.

The Supreme Court will pronounce the judgment in a batch of petitions filed on the Adani-Hindenburg issue today. SC will pronounce judgement on a batch of petitions seeking court-monitored investigation into the allegations made by made by US-based firm Hindenburg Research against the Adani group of companies regarding violations of the stock market. Investors will be keenly watching Adani Ports, Adani Enterprises, Adani Power, Adani Green Energy, ACC, Ambuja Cements

Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research), Mehta Equities Ltd

“On the second trading day of 2024, Nifty and Bank Nifty experienced uneasiness marked by profit-taking, driven by a surge in COVID-19 sub-variant JN.1 cases in India. Described as a day of "volatility" on Dalal Street, the overbought technical conditions triggered panic among Nifty Bulls after it reached a new all-time high at 21,834.35. Buzzing stocks included DIVISLABS, ADANIPORTS, and SUNPHARMA as top gainers, while EICHERMOT, M&M, and ULTRACEMCO were the leading losers. Key indicators, including Nifty PCR and INDIA VIX, reflected market dynamics. Looking ahead, the benchmark may consolidate with Nifty's support at 21487 being a critical level, and aggressive upside targets at 22000 from a technical perspective.”

The benchmark indices ended lower on January 2 with Nifty settling the day around 21,650 amid selling across the sectors barring pharma and metal names.At the day's close on December 2, the Sensex was down 379.46 points or 0.53 percent at 71,892.48, and the Nifty was down 76.10 points or 0.35 percent at 21,665.80.After a negative start, the market extended the losses as the day progressed, however, buying at lower levels helped to trim some losses.

Asian shares extended a global sell-off on Wednesday while the dollar held gains as market optimism about early and aggressive U.S. interest rate cuts ebbed ahead of the release of Fed minutes and jobs data.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 1.1% after a 1.0% drop the previous day in a sluggish start of the new year. Japan markets remain shut for a holiday.

South Korean shares slid 1.8%, Australia's resources heavy stocks declined 1.1%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell 1%, driven by a 1.5% plunge in technology shares.

Overnight, Wall Street's euphoria about rate cuts prospects cooled a little as stocks retreated from record highs. The Nasdaq slid 1.6% and the S&P 500 lost 0.6%.

Stocks were also pressured by a climb in Treasury yields in the new year. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly popped above 4% overnight, the first time in two weeks, but closed at 3.9406%, up 8 basis points for the day.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closed the first trading session of 2024 lower, weighed by a fall in Apple shares after a broker downgrade and declines among other big-tech names triggered by a move higher by Treasury yields.

The lackluster session follows a year where Wall Street's three major indexes notched double-digit gains on the back of optimism around artificial intelligence and stabilizing inflation. The S&P 500 ended last week within 1% of a record closing high reached in early 2022.

The Fed's December policy meeting minutes and a slew of labor market data are on the roster for this week as market participants look to ascertain the timing of potential rate cuts.

While the Fed is widely seen holding rates at its January meeting, traders expect a near 70% chance of a 25-basis point cut in March, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.
The S&P 500 lost 27 points, or 0.57%, to end at 4,742.83 points, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 245.41 points, or 1.63%, to 14,765.94. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 25.5 points, or 0.07%, to 37,715.04.

The benchmark Sensex and Nifty indices are likely to open marginally lower on January 3 as trends in the GIFT Nifty indicate a negative start for the broader index with a loss of 20 points.

Quote for the day: Most investors are experientially blind to a bear market. That's because only a few survive through one ~ Saahil Kapoor, DSP Mutual Fund