Closing Bell: Nifty above 22,500, Sensex gains 351 pts; IT gains, oil & gas drag

Indian benchmark indices ended higher in the volatile session on April 4 with Nifty above 22,500. At close, the Sensex was up 350.81 points or 0.47 percent at 74,227.63, and the Nifty was up 80 points or 0.36 percent at 22,514.70.

We wrap up today's edition of the Moneycontrol live market blog, and will be back tomorrow morning with all the latest updates and alerts. Please visit https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/global-indices for all the global market action.

The Nifty opened gap up and witnessed selling pressure during the first half of the trading session. An equally sharp pullback during the second half helped the index close with gains of ~80 points. The Nifty is heading towards the upper end of the rising channel placed at 22700. On the downside the zone of 22350 – 22300 shall act as a crucial support from short term perspective. Minor degree pullbacks towards support zones should be used as a buying opportunity.

Bank Nifty is also inching higher towards 48500 – 48636 zone which is the All Time High. Momentum indicators on the daily and hourly time frame suggest continuation of the upmove. The zone of 47700 – 47500 shall act as a crucial support zone from short term perspective.

Hero MotoCorp has received the orders / notices pertaining to six assessment years, amounting to a tax demand of Rs 308.65 crore and interest thereon of Rs 296.22 crore. This is on account of certain disallowances, for the assessment years 2013-14 to 2017- 18 and 2019-20.

On April 4, Indian benchmark indices concluded higher amidst volatile trading, with the Nifty surpassing the 22,500 mark. At the close, the Sensex recorded a gain of 350.81 points or 0.47 percent, reaching 74,227.63, while the Nifty climbed by 80.00 points or 0.36 percent, settling at 22,514.70.

Analysis of the Nifty on the daily chart indicates a recent breakout of a rounding bottom pattern with significant volume. However, the formation of a hanging man candlestick pattern at all-time high levels suggests a potential reversal. Nevertheless, if the index manages to close above the 22,600 level, it could extend its upward movement towards 22,800 and 23,000 in the forthcoming days. On the downside, immediate support levels are seen at 22,300 and 22,200.

Examining the Open Interest (OI) data, the highest OI on the call side is observed at the 22,800 strike price, followed by the 23,000 strike price. Conversely, the highest OI on the put side is seen at the 22,300 strike price.

Gold continue to hover around its all-time high levels, on the back of weakness in the Dollar amid uncertainty over U.S. interest rate cuts, while increased safe haven demand also aided prices. Following Gold's footsteps, Silver too marked an all-time high on domestic front, amidst a sharp rally in industrial metals. Persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine, coupled with a devastating earthquake in Taiwan, spurred safe haven plays into bullion and other precious metals.

Fed Governor and officials’ comments remain mixed regarding the pace of interest rate cuts in this year. Governor Powell in his comments yesterday mentioned that the interest rates have peaked for this cycle, however they will still watch the economic numbers and inflation trend before taking any decision. Governor Powell believes that the monetary policy is tight. Economic data points from the US are also reported a bit mixed, but no major impact is being seen on the metal prices. US factory orders and ADP employment change were reported better than expectations, while US JOLTS and Services PMI were reported better than expectations.

Dollar index fell from their recent peak of 105 to 104.20, however US 10Y yields are higher hovering above 4.3% mark. Focus now shifts to comments from several Fed officials who could prepare us for US central bank’s monetary policy path ahead. The nonfarm payrolls data scheduled later this week is very important to watch for as, sticky inflation and strength in the labor market are the two biggest considerations for the Fed in altering interest rates this year.

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Markets traded volatile for yet another session and gained nearly half a percent. After the initial uptick, Nifty slipped sharply lower in the early hours however strength in heavyweights, especially from banking and IT majors, helped the index to recoup losses and inch higher. Eventually, Nifty settled at 22,514.65 level; up by 0.4%. Meanwhile, a mixed trend continued on the sectoral front wherein FMCG and energy closed in the red. The buoyancy continued on the broader front wherein smallcap gained nearly half a percent.

We expect the prevailing tone to continue however the pace of advance would largely depend upon the performance of banking and IT majors. Participants should continue with the “buy on dips” approach and focus more on stock selection.

The Nifty remained highly volatile as the index fluctuated within the range of 22,300 and 22,600 throughout the day. On the daily chart, the index has formed a hanging man pattern, indicating a potential bearish reversal in the short term. Immediate support is positioned at 22,300; a decisive drop below this level could lead the index towards 22,000-21,900 in the short term. On the upside, resistance is observed at 22,600-22,650.

Market breadth displayed a positive trend within a narrow trading range, with attention focused on the RBI's upcoming monetary policy announcement tomorrow. Expectations lean towards the likely status quo in the repo rate due to prevalent inflation worries. Meanwhile, the broader market has shown resilience in select sectors like banks in anticipation of decent Q4 results and exports based on composite PMI data reflecting strong business conditions.

Gains in frontline IT and private banking stocks buoyed Sensex & Nifty to fresh record highs in a highly volatile session. Despite the recovery, volatility may still persist due to renewed uptick in US bond yields on fading hopes of a rate cut over next few months. This will continue to weigh on Indian markets too, and along with FII selling pressure, local equities may continue to face the heat.

Following a strong resurgence, the Bank Nifty surged past the significant resistance level of 48,000, coinciding with the peak open interest on the call side. The immediate support for the index has now shifted to 47,500, where the highest open interest is concentrated on the put side. Post the RBI policy announcement, sustaining above the 48,000 level is crucial for the continuation of the uptrend towards the 49,000/50,000 levels.

Extreme volatility was seen in today's trade as the Index started the session at the record level of 22,600 but higher levels did not last for long and a steep fall was seen across the board. Selected IT and Banking counters guided the Index for recovery to end the session higher at 22,514.65 with gains of 80 points.

Disparity was seen in the Broader markets where Midcaps marginally underperformed while Smallcaps performed in line with the Frontline Index.

The Index has made a Hanging Man candlestick pattern at the record levels which is generally considered a reversal pattern but a firm close above 22,600 will negate the implications of the bearish candle while a level of 22,300 will continue to act as a strong base.

Indian rupee ended flat at 83.44 per dollar versus previous close of 83.43.

Indian benchmark indices ended higher in the volatile session on April 4 with Nifty above 22,500.

At close, the Sensex was up 350.81 points or 0.47 percent at 74,227.63, and the Nifty was up 80.00 points or 0.36 percent at 22,514.70. About 2342 shares advanced, 1361 shares declined, and 101 shares unchanged.

Top gainers on the Nifty were HDFC Bank, Eicher Motors, Asian Paints, Tech Mahindra and Titan Company, while losers were ONGC, Shriram Finance, Adani Ports, BPCL and Bharti Airtel.

Among sectors, bank, power, information technology up 0.5-1 percent, while PSU Bank, oil & gas index down 0.7-1.6 percent.

BSE midcap index ended flat, while smallcap index added 0.5 percent.

-Underweight call, target Rs 129 per share
-Q4 business update shows retail loan book growth continue well on track
-Company’s share of retail in total AUM continue well on track
-Await further details about margins, credit costs, asset quality, in Q4 results
-Company appears to be moving in right direction for long term, but valuation looks expensive

Oil prices were steady on Thursday, shored up by concerns about lower supply as major producers keep output cuts in place and on signs of stronger economic growth in the U.S., the world's biggest oil consumer.

Brent futures for June fell 5 cents to $89.30 a barrel at 0919 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures for May fell 1 cent to $85.42 a barrel.

-Equal-weight call, target Rs 165 per share
-Q4 business update shows loan growth & customer deposits continued to do well
-Gross loan growth was 5.1 percent QoQ, up 20 percent YoY versus 3.3 percent last quarter
-Customer deposits grew 5.5 percent QoQ, up 19 percent YoY
-Overall deposit growth was healthy at 5.4 percent QoQ, led by strong term deposits growth
-CASA deposit growth remained subdued

Sensex Today | BSE Bank index up 0.6 percent supported by AU Small Finance Bank, HDFC Bank, IDFC First Bank

-Underweight call, target Rs 250 per share
-Q4 business update shows gross loan growth was 5 percent QoQ, up 19 percent YoY, steady versus prior quarter
-Retail loan growth was healthy at 6 percent versus 5 percent, while non-retail moderated, 3 percent versus 5 percent
-Retail deposits grew 5 percent QoQ, versus 4 percent in prior quarter
-CASA deposits growth was strong, up 16 percent QoQ
-Liquidity has also improved

Sensex Today | Market at 3 PM

The Sensex was up 320.15 points or 0.43 percent at 74,196.97, and the Nifty was up 66.00 points or 0.29 percent at 22,500.70. About 2103 shares advanced, 1308 shares declined, and 82 shares unchanged.

Indian Rupee witnessed modest gains on Thursday amid positive domestic markets and upbeat PMI data. Domestic equities touched fresh record highs while services PMI expanded to 61.2 in March 2024 vs 60.6 in the prior month. Weak US Dollar also supported the domestic unit. However, FII outflows capped sharp gains. US Dollar declined on disappointing services PMI from US and dovish Fedspeak. US ISM services PMI fell to 51.4 in March 2024 versus 52.6 in February 2024.

Fed Chair, Jerome Powell reiterated his wait-and-watch stance and said that central bank needs more confidence that inflation is moving lower sustainably. However, US ADP added 184,000 jobs in March 2024 versus 155,000 jobs in February 2024, which showed a tight labour market.

We expect Rupee to trade with a slight negative bias on surge in crude oil and gold prices. Renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and selling pressure from FIIs may also weigh on the Rupee. However, strength in the domestic equities and reports of selling of Dollars by RBI may support Rupee at lower levels. Traders may also take cues from weekly unemployment claims and trade balance data from US and speeches from Fed officials. Investors may remain cautious ahead of non-farm payrolls report to be released tomorrow. USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 83.20 to Rs 83.70.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | JPMorgan On IT Companies

-Demand environment has moved sideways since reaching a bottom in H2CY23
-See no perceptible demand improvement not only in Q4FY24 but also into Q1FY25
-Muted demand likely to result in poor Q4 exit rates & deflate FY25 guidance across companies
-Markets should ignore a soft Q4
-FY25 revenue guidance of 2-4 percent at Infosys & 4-6 percent at HCLTech could surprise some investors
-NSE IT’s negative price action, appears to already bake this in
-Expect midcaps to outperform scale IT Firms and ERDs will outperform IT firms
-Tactically, non-discretionary heavy portfolios could outperform discretionary
-Recovery may pick-up in H2CY24

Total deposits up 43% YoY & up 12% QoQ at Rs 36,129 crore and Gross advances up 23% YoY & up 5% QoQ at Rs 34,337 crore.

Lenders will invite counter bids via Swiss challenge auction. JAL owes nearly 29,000 crore, which includes principal and interest, to 32 banks, including State Bank of India, ICICI Bank, IDBI Bank and others.

The public issue of Bharti Hexacom had a decent start of the day two of bidding on April 4, as investors picked up 2.26 crore shares or 0.47 times the issue of 4.12 crore shares up for grabs.

Retail investors led the race, purchasing 0.87 times the portion reserved for them. Non-institutional investors were second in line after buying 0.86 times the allotted quota, and qualified institutional buyers (QIBs) were yet to warm to the issue after subscribing just 29 percent.

The dollar hit a one-week low on Thursday as recent economic data supported expectations for quick rate cuts in the U.S., while the battered yen was little changed against other major currencies.

HCL Infosystems has received final arbitration award, in the arbitration filed by the company against Government of National Capital Territory of Delhi (GNCTD) for recovery of dues against setting up and maintaining a wireless secured communications network (TETRA).

The monetary relief has been awarded in favour of the company as per the arbitral award is Rs 4.5 crore alongwith interest at 8% per annum from the date of the award till payment. The counter claims worth Rs 163 crore filed by the GNCTD against the company have also been disallowed.

Total deposits up 24% YoY & up 7% QoQ at Rs 31,650 crore and CASA ratio at 26.3% versus 26.4% YoY and versus 25.5%, QoQ.

-Underweight call, target Rs 16.5 per share
-Q4 business update reported, loan growth was up 5 percent sequentially
-Deposits grew by 10 percent QoQ, and was up 22.5 percent YoY, versus 13.2 percent YoY in Q3FY24
-CASA growth was strong at 15 percent QoQ & term deposit growth also accelerated
-Q4 average LCR moderated, 116 percent versus 118 (QoQ)

Stock Market LIVE Updates | JPMorgan On IT Companies

-Upgrade Persistent Systems to overweight from neutral, target raised to Rs 4,400 per share  
-Upgrade LTIMindtree to neutral from underweight, target to Rs 5,200 per share
-Upgrade KPIT Tech to neutral from underweight, target Rs 1,400 per share  
-Infosys, Persistent Systems, L&T Tech are our key overweight

As of March quarter, the FII holding is at 47.8% against 52.3% in December quarter.

Sensex Today | Nifty PSU Bank index down 0.5 percent led by Bank of Baroda, Bank Of Maharashtra, Punjab and Sind Bank

KEC International has received new orders of Rs 816 crore across its various businesses including orders for supply of towers in the United States of America, setting up steel plant in Northern India and plant for carbon derivates in Eastern India.

The gross advances aggregated to approximately Rs 25,080 billion as of March 31, 2024, a growth of around 55.4% over Rs 16,142 billion as of March 31, 2023 and a growth of around 1.6% (Rs 387 billion) over Rs 24,693 billion as of December 31, 2023.

The deposits aggregated to approximately Rs 23,800 billion as of March 31, 2024, a growth of around 26.4% over Rs 18,834 billion as of March 31, 2023 and a growth of around 7.5% (Rs 1,660 billion) over Rs 22,140 billion as of December 31, 2023.

Dheeraj Sinha is appointed as Executive Vice President and Chief Information Officer of Sun Pharmaceutical Industries with effect from April 3. Sinha replaced Anil Rao who ceased to be the Chief Information Officer because of resignation due to personal reasons.

GMR Power and Urban Infra along with Shree Naman Developers have incorporated a joint venture company namely Portus Ventures for carrying out the design, operation and maintenance of the superstructures on the land parcels at Mumbai International Airport (MIAL) site. The company has subscribed for 26% of the total paid up capital of the JV company for Rs 26,000.

The duly authorized committee of directors at its meeting held on April 04, 2024, considered and approved for raising, on a private placement basis, upto 2,50,000, senior, secured, rated, listed, redeemable, non-convertible debentures (NCDs) of face value Rs 1,00,000/- each aggregating upto Rs 2,500 crores in one or more tranche(s).

-Overweight call, target Rs 4,695 per share
-Standalone Q4 revenue of Rs 12,400 crore was up 20 percent YoY
-Standalone Q4 revenue is higher than 18 percent growth in 9MFY24 & nearly 1 percent higher than estimate
-Topline growth was led by implied SSSG of 11 percent, which is highest in last five quarters versus 10 percent estimate & 9 percent increase in store count on average
-On a 5-year CAGR basis, growth improved to 19.7 percent from 19.4 percent in Q3
-Growth still lower than the average of 20.4 percent in H1

Indiabulls Housing Finance has raised $350 million by allotment of senior secured social bonds due 2027. The said bonds are expected to be listed on the India International Exchange (IFSC).

Dabur's consolidated revenue is expected to register mid-single digit growth during Q4 FY24.

International business is expected to register double-digit growth in constant currency terms, led by good momentum in MENA region, Egypt & Turkey.

Gross margins are likely to continue to witness expansion on account of deflation in input cost and cost- saving initiatives.

Sensex Today | Market at 1 PM

The Sensex was up 179.93 points or 0.24 percent at 74,056.75, and the Nifty was up 32.90 points or 0.15 percent at 22,467.60. About 2028 shares advanced, 1319 shares declined, and 84 shares unchanged.

Reserve Bank of India will likely keep repo rate unchanged at 6.5%. Stance will also be unchanged for better transmission of the delivered rate hikes (of 250 bps so far). Right now, food inflation is high so the biggest risk going ahead is monsoon. IMD has forecast normal monsoon for the year, so timely kharif sowing can bring down food inflation. Till then, RBI is unlikely to cut interest rates.

The central bank will also take cues from what Fed and ECB are doing when it comes to rates. So it is unlikely that rate cuts will happen before October.

However, RBI could change its stance to 'neutral' in June or August. Meanwhile, GDP growth for FY25 might be revised upwards to 7.3-7.4% from 7% earlier as all macroeconomic data has been robust.

Aurionpro Solutions opened its qualified institutions placement (QIP) issue on April 3. The floor price has been fixed at Rs 2,103.68 per share.

The board of directors of Vodafone Idea will be meeting on April 6 to consider issuance of equity / convertible securities on preferential basis, to one or more promoter group entities for Rs 2,075 crore.

Sensex Today | BSE Realty index down 0.6 percent dragged by DLF, Prestige Estate, Swan Energy

Foreign investor CLSA Global Markets Pte Ltd has bought 2,72,10,507 equity shares (equivalent to 2.88% of paid up equity) in Edelweiss Financial Services via open market transactions. These shares were purchased at an average price of Rs 69.16 crore, valuing at Rs 188.18 crore.

However, foreign portfolio investor The Pabrai Investment Fund IV LP was the seller in this deal, offloading 2,72,08,207 equity shares at an average price of Rs 69.15 per share, amounting to Rs 188.14 crore.

Gufic Biosciences has incorporated a wholly owned subsidiary - Veira Life FZE - in Dubai, UAE. The subsidiary will conduct the business of marketing, distribution and sale of pharmaceutical products.

Sensex Today | Nifty Private Bank index up 0.7 percent led by Bandhan Bank, HDFC Bank, IDFC First Bank

SEBI’s point remains, derivatives are a risky business. Retail investors who have no experience and confidence should not indulge in that.

If investors have no knowledge, they should invest in mutual funds. For them, investments should be preferred, not trading.

The reduction in lot size in derivatives is a result of SEBI’s actions. We are just acting in accordance with the regulations.

The company’s Q4 net profit at Rs 86.6 crore against Rs 35.1 crore and revenue up 2.1% at Rs 159.2 crore versus Rs 155.9 crore, YoY.

-Initiate overweight call, target Rs 7,000 per share
-Expect company to grow revenues at 13 percent over FY24-26 with 140 bps margin expansion
-See consistent execution in sales & operating leverage
-Resulting 21 percent FY24-26 earnings CAGR places company 11 percent ahead of large cap peers
-FY24-26 earnings CAGR fastest behind Persistent Systems in our coverage
-Stock underperformed NSEIT/midcaps by 11 percent/6 percent YTD
-Announced a potential placement & extension of its ESOP
-Could dilute FY25 margin/EPS by 100 bps/7 percent, does not appear fully reflected in consensus
-16 percent share decline over past month appears to fully bake in margin dilution
-See an attractive entry point

Sensex Today | BSE Auto index down 0.5 percent dragged by Hero MotoCorp, Cummins India, Tube Investment

We’ve been doing T+0 settlements last week onwards and if instant settlement happens, we’ll doing that too.

Shares of GE Power India surged 11 percent on April 4 to hit a 52-week high of Rs 369 apiece on NSE on account of the company bagging two orders worth Rs 774.9 crore from Jaiprakash Power Ventures.

The orders are for dilation and evacuation, and supply of wet limestone-based FGDs for the Nigrie Super Thermal Power Plant at Nigrie and Bina Thermal Power Plant at Bina in Madhya Pradesh, GE Power said in a regulatory filing.

The Nigrie Super Thermal Power Plant order worth Rs 490.5 crore is to be completed within 33 months, while the Bina Thermal Power Plant order worth Rs 284.4 crore is to be completed within 30 months. Read More

AI is a buzzword. Two years ago, people used to ask me about blockchains. We use whatever is useful for us.

AI cannot solve all expectations and issues, I’m sure it will keep improving. We will keep using it as it improves

We are first and foremost a regulator. The function of a stock exchange in India is of regulation, the profits made are a by-product of good regulation.

Poonawalla Fincorp has reported highest ever disbursements during Q4FY24 at Rs 9,680 crore, growing 52% YoY and 11% QoQ. Disbursements in Q4FY23 stood at Rs 6,371 crore and Rs 8,731 crore in Q3FY24.

Assets under management grew by 54% YoY and 13% QoQ to Rs 24,800 crore as on March 2024. The company continued to have ample liquidity of Rs 3,600 crore as of March 2024.

Before NSE, there were 22 exchanges in India, but they went down because NSE’s automation brought in a new way of doing things

Sensex Today | Market at 11 AM

The Sensex was down 193.59 points or 0.26 percent at 73,683.23, and the Nifty was down 70.00 points or 0.31 percent at 22,364.70. About 2001 shares advanced, 1233 shares declined, and 117 shares unchanged.

The company has been delivering consistent double digit revenue growth driven by the expansion of capacities and capabilities, market share expansion across various segments, comprehensive solutions offerings, enhanced kit value, and focus on exports. The company has seen strong revenue growth, especially in its focus segments of EVs, lighting, switches, sensors, controllers, and alloy wheels. New capacities coming on stream for multiple segments along with headroom for market share gains and increasing kit value will drive topline growth further

Union Bank of India's DIFC Dubai branch has arranged for syndicated term loan of $500 million including green shoe of $100 million, in two tranches with tenure of 3 years and 5 years.

This is the maiden syndicated term loan raised by the bank at overseas center. Under this facility, the bank has drawn $100 million under Tranche A on April 3.